John Gruber Versus Xiaomi

John Gruber Versus Xiaomi Ha Ha Ha
Daring Fireball (aka John Gruber) on Fred Wilson’s 2015 Predictions:

WilsonDFGruberXiaomi

First of all, it’s not a “third OS.” MIUI is a skin over Android, not much different from other skins. It’s “non-Google” in the way AOSP Android is. But you really think Xiaomi won’t get Google Certified and add Play Store if need be? Puhleeze. There were and still are craptabs with fall-apart hardware that got Certified.


Second, people raving about the ZTE Zmax phone shows that there is a market waiting for good low-cost hardware that’s unencumbered by a two-year contract (or massive marketing overhead costs, ahem). Perhaps Gruber has an inside word on how Apple is just waiting to pounce on Xiaomi and sue the shit out of them on various counts. This is business, not sports. Shit can always be worked out. How could Gruber forget perceived arch-enemy Microsoft investing in a flailing Apple when Jobs returned? Grow up.

Third, the rumors of Xiaomi entering the U.S. have been back and forth. They’re not listed as being an exhibitor at CES, so it’s doubtful they’ll introduce a Mi 5 there as rumored. This isn’t to preclude the possibility of Xiaomi having an off-site venue. But word would have leaked out about that. And if it’s a surprise waiting to be revealed, it’s going to be very hard to corral the press to it without virtually bribing them with free food, free rides, free stuff (but hey, that’s mostly what happens at CES, no?).

Fourth, setting aside the copycatism of Xiaomi, they’re still a company as aggressive as Amazon yet far less full of themselves as Apple. That combination has to worry anyone — perhaps especially Apple fanboiz. Xiaomi repeats again and again that they’re not Apple (despite the copycatism, etc), not a hardware company, but an Internet company. They began with MIUI, not a phone. In fact, in a recent article about the company, Lei Jun revealed he wanted to do a router first, not a phone. Xiaomi has a different playbook than anyone else.

Fifth, Gruber had better prepared to be shocked. Because if Xiaomi does enter the U.S. market this year, it will succeed. The days of off-contract phones with prices for the one-percent are coming to an end. Blu has pioneered that market but their plastic-ky phones with questionable support and doubtful prospects only cleared the way for higher-quality products from Xiaomi.